Wong Chin Huat is a Malaysian political scientist,  a political activist and a columnist. He is very supportive of Arul, the PSM candidate for N24 DUN Semenyih for the work Arul has been doing among the poor and marginalised as well as his contribution to fighting for democratic space in Malaysia for the last 20 years.

In his election forecast for Semenyih, Dr. Wong Chin Huat believes the results would be favorable to Arul.

Semenyih comprises  52% Malay ethnic group, followed by 25% Chinese and the remaining 19% are Indians and other ethnic groups. His forecast is based on the fact that Arul is one of the well known leaders of PSM, who  frequently gets Tamil press attention   and he also has support from some MIC leaders. As such, his forecast that at-least 16% of the Indian vote will go to Arul and the remaining 3% will be shared by PKR and BN.

Based on the assumption that Semenyih is a strong hold of UMNO, PSM and PKR are expected to win about 23% of the Malay vote. Arul’s leadership is well admired and he has supporters among the PR and Bersih leadership. Even, the vice-President of PAS, Mat Sabu, Bersih chairperson Ambiga, Pak Samad, Elizabeth Wong of PKR and Hamidi’s (PKR candidate) niece, Rara Osman have declared their support to Arul as the best candidate. Therefor, Chin Huat’s prediction is, Arul will have more Malay votes than Hamidi, which is about 13%.

His conclusion, Barisan Nasional to receive 35% votes combining 33% Malay  and 2% Indian and other ethnic group votes. Arul will get about 16% of the Indian and other ethnic group votes and adding 13% of Malay votes will give him a total of 29%. Meanwhile Hamidi with only 10% Malay votes and about 1% other ethnic votes will leave him far behind at 11%.

If 5% of the Chinese votes goes to BN, the remaining 20% will focus on voting Arul, which means Arul will win with 49% majority compare to 39% for BN. PSM has always been loyal to Pakatan Rakyat and they have even applied to join PR.

Arul has also pledged to the voters in Semenyih which carries 12 points“Aku Janji”  or My Promises, one of which is ‘will not join BN if I won the election’. The voters has the right to summon him in court if he fails to keep his promises.

If the 20% Chinese votes focus on PKR, then PKR would get total of 31% votes. Nevertheless PKR cannot defeat BN that would have 39% votes. At the end, BN would win.

Voters in Semenyih are very lucky as they have one of the best and a winnable candidate to vote for.