‘First past the post’ favours BN as opposition is divided

Umno only has 40pct Malay support, claims Rafizi

Thirdeye: The numbers, whether accurate or not, are subject to debate. What is important is the psychological thrust behind the numbers.

Simply put, PKR vice-president Rafizi Ramli is saying Umno is losing Malay support. Arrogant Umno leaders will counter to say, no, we are not. Indeed, they will claim their support has increased.

PAS will next think whether strategically it is the right to move closer to Umno. Pakatan members will meanwhile think that all is not lost even with three-cornered fights because they still have non-Malay support.

Note that Rafizi is planning to register more unregistered members of the public, focussing on youth and non-Malays.

Frank: But Rafizi, the 60 percent who do not support Umno may not be registered voters. So, would that profit the other side when that is the case?

Clearly, it is not only those who vote for Umno-BN who are the problems. Problems arise too with another two groups – those who fail to register to votes plus those who do register to vote but who fail to vote for one reason or another.

In the end, it all means that Malaysia needs to get worse before everyone in the country come to the understanding that they have to play their role as voters, etc, for Malaysia to change.

The question now is this – for us all to get worse off than now, does it take another few months or just one year plus (before the coming general election) to take place or six or seven years from now (before the general election following the coming general election)?

At present, it seems some have allowed themselves to be distracted by one thing or another as if what Malaysia shall be down the road is not their business.

Ferdtan: Don’t be complacent, Rafizi. The job is of winning Malay votes is far from over. When it comes to the crunch, when the election is called, BN’s massive machinery using both the party’s and public institutions (illegally), coupled with the mainstream media aiding them, Umno’s support will surely go up.

With PAS ‘splitting’ the Malay votes away from the opposition, Umno will definitely romp home to victory.

The only hope, the only way to win the next election, depends heavily on Amanah and Bersatu. Amanah should do its best to win over the many existing PAS supporters and freshly-minted Bersatu to bring the Malay votes away from Umno.

The question is how to destroy the Umno brand? Malays have sentimental feeling for Umno no matter how much they hate the top leadership.

A Muslim friend who was an ardent supporter of Dr Mahathir Mohamad never failed to repeat the ex-PM’s criticisms of Najib Abdul Razak. That was then – when he was still in Umno; but now since Mahathir had left Umno and taken Pakatan as allies, my friend has gone silent.

Apparently, the pull of party brand is stronger than his adoration of an individual. That is the dilemma faced by Pakatan and Bersatu.

Lord Denning: Rafizi, as much as we like to believe you if you say that Umno had only 40 percent of Malay support verifiable at the next GE, why would you want to get on the megaphone with the news.

So that Umno can offer more Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M), both official and unofficial, before the election?

Fair Play: I tend to agree with Rafizi that the Malay support for Umno has been gradually eroding. I think the straw that broke the camel’s back is the sad state of affairs which now started to surface about the excesses and abuses by those who manage Mara and Felda, especially FGV’s performance on the stock exchange.

The percentage may not be as important as Rafizi had quoted, but only the final outcome will matter. In GE14, there is an even chance that Malaysia might experience the same phenomenon as in the recent US presidential election.

Worldly Wise: Mahathir should support Anwar Ibrahim, who supported Mahathir against the Malay rulers.

Without Anwar, Mahathir would have had an uphill task at that time to take away the Malay rulers’ immunity in civil cases and establish a Special Court. Mahathir should unify the opposition instead of dividing it.

The Analyser: I do love these ‘in-house’ surveys. They are way too prone to bias and misinterpretation.

But tell us Rafizi, what did the survey have to say about the Malay support of PKR? Would it possibly be below 10 percent, which politically puts you in the ‘irrelevant basket’?

But hey, keep playing with numbers, keep on with the endless debate on seat allocations. Neither will impress voters. The things that will impress voters are simply not on your Mahathirised PKR agenda.

If the PKR survey is accurate then the question is what will happen to the remaining 60 percent of the Malay vote. The choices are between four Islamist parties of varying levels of fundamentalist repression.

We can extrapolate for the recent by-elections that 20-25 percent of votes will go to PAS and there is no reason to expect that figure will change. PAS has not changed, if anything the rabid Islamists will have become more Islamist.

Amanah has proven they do not have what it takes to attract votes (Pakatan in Sarawak 31 percent, Pakatan in recent by-elections 21-24 percent, that’s the Amanah effect). The Malays will never again vote for DAP (thanks to Lim Guan Eng).

So at best Pakatan/Bersatu has 35 to 40 percent of the Malay vote. My estimate is that as bad as BN might be, Pakatan/Bersatu is a much worse option so I would cut their share of the vote down to 30-35 percent, which is not a winning combination.

Clever Voter: Umno will still win the general elections even if the Malay votes drop to 40%. One reason is thousands of Malay votes are now in urban constituencies.

The ‘first past the post’ system favours BN. It’s unlikely rural votes have shifted. Indeed, they may even have net gains as a result of redrawn electoral boundaries.

PAS is likely to be loser since it’s unlikely Umno will be too generous. Attention must be paid on Sarawak and Sabah.

If we are expecting shocks, it has to be Umno shooting its own foot. The reason – greed and internal struggle for power. The election is for Umno to lose.

Analliar: How many Malays will tolerate such blatant and free-for-all alleged robbery of the public funds?

The Felda scandal will hurt Umno more than they think. Finally the new media has taken over from the old. The truth is being realised.

Fair&Just: But when the GE comes, money will flow like rivers from Malaysian Official 1 (MO1).

The above is a selection of comments posted by Malaysiakini subscribers. Only paying subscribers can post comments. Over the past one year, Malaysiakinians have posted over 100,000 comments. Join the Malaysiakinicommunity and help set the news agenda. Subscribe now.

These comments are compiled to reflect the views of Malaysiakini subscribers on matters of public interest. Malaysiakini does not intend to represent these views as fact.